Betting on the Bears: What the Line Says About Their Playoff Hopes

The Chicago Bears consistently capture the imagination of their fanbase, often more so with hopeful speculation than on-field dominance. As the 2025 NFL season progresses, the chatter around their playoff prospects intensifies, and a key indicator of these hopes lies within the fluctuating world of betting lines. 

These lines, set by oddsmakers, represent a sophisticated aggregation of data, expert analysis, and public perception, offering a telling glimpse into how the league and its observers truly view the Bears’ chances.

The Current Betting Lines

Betting lines, in essence, are the sportsbook’s prediction of a game’s outcome, expressed in various forms like point spreads, money lines, and over/under totals. The most relevant lines for playoff implications are often the “odds to make the playoffs” or “win totals.” 

As of late June 2025, the Chicago Bears odds are generally hovering around +155 to +160 to make the postseason. Conversely, the odds for them to miss the playoffs are typically around -190. A positive money line of +160 means a successful $100 bet would yield a $160 profit, implying a lower probability. 

A negative money line of -190 means you’d need to bet $190 to win $100, indicating a higher probability of that outcome. Therefore, the current lines suggest that while optimism surrounds the Bears, the consensus among oddsmakers is that they are still more likely to miss the playoffs than make them.

Historically, the Bears haven’t been perennial playoff contenders; their last postseason appearance was in the 2020 NFL season. This line of around +160 to make the playoffs represents a notable shift from previous years, where their odds were often significantly longer. This improvement can be attributed to a perceived positive trajectory, but it also underscores the competitive landscape of the NFC North and the wider NFC conference.

Analyzing the Bears’ Performance

The Bears finished the 2024 season with a 5-12 record, placing them fourth in the NFC North. While this wasn’t a stellar performance, there were flashes of potential, particularly in the latter half of the season. Key players showed improvement, and the team’s statistical output, while not top-tier, indicated growth areas.

Offensively, the spotlight naturally falls on quarterback Caleb Williams, the highly-touted No. 1 overall pick from the 2024 NFL Draft. His rookie season accumulated 3,541 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, along with 466 rushing yards, setting a new single-season total yards record for a Bears quarterback. 

The additions of wide receivers Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze provide Williams with an array of legitimate targets alongside DJ Moore. Running back D’Andre Swift offers an explosive option in the backfield. The offensive line, a significant weakness in previous seasons, has seen a substantial overhaul with the acquisitions of guards Jonah Jackson, Joe Thuney, and center Drew Dalman. This investment aims to provide Williams with crucial protection and open running lanes.

Defensively, the Bears have a strong core. Players like cornerback Jaylon Johnson, linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, and defensive end Montez Sweat are impact players capable of disrupting opposing offenses. The defense, particularly in the latter part of last season, demonstrated a knack for generating turnovers, a critical factor in close games.

However, weaknesses persist. Despite the offensive line improvements, cohesion takes time, and the unit’s ability to consistently protect Williams and create running lanes will be a season-long narrative. While the defense has playmakers, consistency against top-tier offenses remains a question. 

Furthermore, the NFC North is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. The Bears also face one of the league’s tougher schedules in 2025, ranked second toughest by some metrics. 

Predicting the Playoffs

Expert opinions on the Bears’ playoff chances for the 2025 season are varied but generally lean towards cautious optimism. Many analysts point to the significant offseason additions, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The hiring of new head coach Ben Johnson is one of the reasons for this expected improvement. 

NFL.com has dubbed the Bears one of the “five teams that won the 2025 offseason” and projects them as a “dark horse contender.” This sentiment is rooted in the belief that Johnson’s offensive acumen will unlock Caleb Williams’ full potential. Not only that, but the bolstered supporting cast will also provide a more stable environment for success.

However, other projection models are less bullish, with some predicting around seven wins for the Bears and only a 16.7% chance of making the playoffs. This disparity underscores the inherent uncertainty in NFL predictions, where “paper” talent doesn’t always translate directly to on-field success.

Several factors could influence the Bears’ path to the playoffs. First and foremost is the continued development of Caleb Williams. His ability to adapt to the NFL game and execute Johnson’s system will be paramount. Injuries to key players, particularly on the offensive line or their top pass-catchers, could derail their season.

Final Words

The current betting lines for the Chicago Bears offer a compelling narrative. While not yet considered a lock for the postseason, there’s a palpable shift in optimism compared to previous years. The odds of +160 to make the playoffs suggest that a significant improvement is anticipated. This is largely driven by the arrival of Caleb Williams and the strategic roster enhancements made during the offseason. The confidence in players like Rome Odunze to have a breakout season and a seemingly more coherent coaching staff under Ben Johnson fuels these heightened expectations.