MILLER: Waiting for the Pritzker, Durbin dominoes to fall

We’re less than nine months from when candidates can begin circulating petitions for the 2026 election, so we’re rapidly approaching the time when major figures will need to decide whether to run or not. Because of that, a lot of people are polling.

The state’s two big dogs, US Sen. Dick Durbin and Gov. JB Pritzker, are still not saying what they plan to do, although Durbin has said he’ll make his plans known after the start of the new year.

Pritzker has been polling, although his campaign wouldn’t comment. A friend who was polled said the questions varied from migrant and immigration policy, to a possible constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights, to crime response and whether he should stand up to President-elect Donald Trump if he tries to violate the rights of Illinois residents or whether he should find a way to work with the Trump administration to benefit Illinois.

There were the usual right direction vs. wrong direction questions, and questions rating the governor’s performance on things like fiscal management and taxes, and where they believed Pritzker stood on the political ideological spectrum.

Pritzker’s poll tested the statewide popularity of people like Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and US Reps. Lauren Underwood and Raja Krishnamoorthi. The governor also tested Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s popularity.

Lt. Gov. Stratton is also polling. A source with knowledge of the poll and the thinking behind it said Stratton is “keeping her options open” as a decision by Pritzker looms. However, the person stressed that Stratton has “no plans of not keeping her day job.”

Stratton has been actively fundraising since the summer of 2023 and has also become more visible, appearing with the governor at many of his governmental and campaign stops and doing several of her own events.

Stratton’s poll tested Sen. Durbin’s popularity, which is standard in these sorts of things, but that’s an office she could seek. Also, if Pritzker decides not to run again, the decision will likely create a down-ticket cascade as people attempt to move up the ladder. Like Pritzker, Stratton tested the popularity of several other elected officials.

Stratton’s poll tested various background messages with potential voters, which is also common. For instance, a question tested how her relationship to Pritzker plays with voters: “Juliana Stratton has worked with JB Pritzker since day one to get big things done for Illinois. JB calls her his partner in governing. Together, they turned the Illinois economy around and along with accomplishments like raising the minimum wage, making historic investments in infrastructure, and giving one point eight billion dollars in tax relief to working families in Illinois.” Voters were then asked to rate her favorability between one and ten.

Another test question notes that Stratton “is the first Black Lieutenant Governor and first Black woman constitutional officer in Illinois ever,” and after talking about her life on the city’s South Side, closes with, “As a descendant of enslaved people, she understands the systemic barriers facing marginalized communities. She works every day across Illinois to rebuild neglected communities.”

The poll talks about her time as the “primary caregiver” to her mother, who had Alzheimer’s and lived with Stratton for three years before passing away. “She says it was both the honor of her life as well as incredibly difficult. Stratton was also raising three daughters at the same time, sandwiched between two generations and caring for everyone. Stratton managed it all and knows how hard Illinois families have it.”

The poll touts her experience as a mediation attorney. “That means her whole job was to get opposing sides to compromise, see things from the other’s point of view, and get both sides to agree to a solution. And Stratton had a very high percent success rate. Who better to lead us when everyone is so divided? Stratton has the skills and the know how to help bring both sides together to get things done.”

After testing other candidates’ popularity, Stratton’s poll also asked whether her support of various issues made respondents more or less likely to approve of her, including raising the minimum wage; enacting a large infrastructure plan; criminal justice reform; balancing the budget, improving pension funding and achieving nine credit upgrades; helping pass a bill to “enshrine reproductive rights into state law”; leading the Council on Rural Affairs and the Council for Women and Girls; and “stood up to the NRA” by helping pass an assault weapons ban.

That should give you an idea of the messaging to expect if Stratton decides to run for a different office.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.