Lies, damned lies and statistics regarding the mayor’s race

Our greatest American author said math often frustrated him.

The title of this column came from Mark Twain, who actually attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli, who twice served as the Prime Minister of Great Britain in the 1860’s and 1870’s.

Following Tuesday night’s vote tally in the Republican primary for mayor of Quincy, Mayor Mike Troup held a 138 vote lead over his challenger, Dan Brink.

Adams County Clerk Ryan Niekamp says there are 211 outstanding vote-by-mall ballots that are floating in the ether. If they arrive with a postmark of Feb. 25 or earlier, they will be tallied.

So will 100 percent of those ballots be returned and meet that qualification? That is probably not likely. It will probably be well under 50 percent returned and qualified.

But let’s just say they do. How many of the 211 votes does Brink need to take the lead?

He needs 175. Then Troup would get the remaining 36 and Brink would take a 1,807-1,806 lead. Recount anyone?

So Brink needs to pull 83 percent of the outstanding ballots to make that happen. He won about 48 percent of the ballots that have been counted, so what’s the likelihood of him increasing his performance by 35 points?

So, yes, until the canvass on March 11, the results are unofficials, but in the words of Vincent Kennedy McMahon …

I spoke to Brink Tuesday night. He knows it’s over. He’s proud he ran a positive campaign and relished his family’s support in a quest for mayor that he has been thinking about for more than a decade.

So Linda Moore’s campaign revs up today as Team Troup takes a minute to breathe and celebrate the big win.

This will be Troup’s fourth mayoral opponent. He’s had two close wins and one blowout. His campaign is based on that he has been the “real Republican” in each contest, so expect that strategy again against the former city treasurer who ran for that office as a Democrat, but is now running as an independent for mayor.

Can Mike Troup make if four in a row?

We’ll find out in about 33 days.

J. Robert Gough is the publisher/general manager of Muddy River News.