MILLER: “Trump-proofing” Illinois

Back in 2018, about midway through President Donald Trump’s first term, the Illinois Senate passed a bill that was designed to prevent “the weakening of Illinois environmental and labor regulations in response to a weakening of federal regulations,” according to an Illinois Environmental Council press release.

Some state rules are tied directly to federal rules, so if the feds had slashed regulations, the idea was to prevent that from happening here.

“This bill aims to preserve the status quo of Illinois’ current safeguards as the federal administration continues to roll back environmental standards,” the IEC claimed at the time. “The Illinois Baseline Protection Act would prevent the weakening of any current Illinois standard below the federal standard already in place.”

The bill, SB2213, went nowhere in the House, however.

As I’ve been telling my subscribers for a while now, some Democrats are looking at “Trump-proofing” state statues going forward, perhaps as early as the November veto session, although no language is currently circulating, so it may have to wait.

Gov. JB Pritzker was asked about this topic last week and said he’d met with his senior staff about the concept. He also “talked to some other governors around the country about the things that they’re looking at doing.” California’s Democratic governor has already called a special legislative session.

Pritzker didn’t say if he’d come up with any ideas, but he listed “health care, reproductive rights” as possible topics.

Illinois’ trade unions, led by Local 150 of the Operating Engineers Union, have been looking at this topic since before the election. While no legislation has yet been drafted, they said they are gaming situations about what would happen if the feds repealed the Davis Bacon Act, which sets the prevailing wage on government contracts.

They’re also looking at creating a state version of the National Labor Relations Act, which is the basis for all federal labor laws on organizing, collective bargaining and the right to strike. Some businesses, including Elon Musk’s Tesla, have challenged the constitutionality of the NLRA.

I asked House Speaker Chris Welch for comment on what might happen in the near future.

“This week has proven that the work we’ve done in Illinois matters more than ever, and I’m grateful that we’ve taken steps to safeguard the rights and values that are now at extreme risk in many surrounding states. We’ll be heading into this veto session with a renewed determination to ensure our fundamental freedoms remain protected.”

But Illinois reality is also starting to intrude.

The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget published its mandated five-year budget projection late last month, and it was bad news for the state, to the tune of a projected $3.16 billion deficit in the coming fiscal year, which begins July 1.

“The ability to fund new programs will be severely limited,” the budget office warned.

A caveat: The spending and most of the revenue projections are made using current laws and past trends. The economy can change, and laws and practices can be changed.

GOMB also issued a reminder of something we all learned during the budget impasse years ago: “(S)pending reductions cannot be implemented broadly across-the-board. Areas such as debt service on state general obligation bonds, pension payments, Medicaid, and areas that are covered by consent decrees reflect approximately 40 percent of the State’s General Funds spending. Education spending – primarily base school support (e.g. Evidence Based Funding and transportation reimbursements), state university operations, and need-based assistance – encompass another 24 percent of the budget.”

That would mean 16 percent cuts to what can be reduced, without taking other action.

Donald Trump’s much-improved state election results here (halving his loss margin from his last two races) do not create the sort of political environment you want when facing a big deficit next fiscal year – especially if you’re a governor with his eyes on the White House.

Despite the fact that Illinois state and local Democrats appear to have held on to most every office they had, their earlier exuberance contrasted poorly with that final Trump number. And that can put the fear into legislators. Fearful legislators may not want to stick their necks out for a tax hike.

Pritzker himself downplayed his own budget office’s projection by saying the annual forecast has “been wrong every year.”

Yes, we have seen some wild projections. But the crazy pandemic-era fiscal swings have mostly ended, making projections a bit easier.

Pritzker told reporters that his administration had “defeated” dire predictions every year and pledged to introduce and pass a balanced budget next year.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.